India’s Trade Performance Defies Global Uncertainties in 2024

Strong Trade Growth Amid Global Challenges

India's trade performance in 2024 showcased remarkable resilience despite global economic uncertainties. According to the latest report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), India's exports grew by 6.3% for the calendar year, significantly outpacing global trade growth of 3.7%. This impressive performance underscores India's expanding role in international trade.

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India Among Global Trade Leaders

India, along with the US, and China, played a crucial role in driving global trade, which expanded by nearly $1.2 trillion. Notably, while international trade in goods saw only modest growth, services emerged as the key driver, contributing $700 billion to the global trade expansion, compared to $500 billion from goods.

Record-Breaking Exports in 2024

India's total exports of goods and services reached an all-time high of $817.4 billion in 2024, up from $769 billion in 2023. The first three quarters of the 2024-25 financial year recorded unprecedented export levels, with the third quarter marking the highest-ever export figures. This growth highlights India's strengthening global trade presence and adaptability to evolving economic conditions.

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Resilience Despite Global Headwinds

Despite persistent global challenges such as supply chain disruptions and economic slowdowns in key markets, India's trade resilience remains evident. The steady growth in both goods and services exports signals India's ability to navigate global headwinds effectively, reinforcing its position as a key player in the global economy.

Future Trade Outlook and Emerging Challenges

As per the UNCTAD report, global trade remained stable in early 2025. However, mounting geoeconomic tensions, protectionist policies, and trade disputes pose potential risks to future trade expansion. These challenges could lead to significant disruptions in global supply chains and trade flows.

Global Trade Imbalances and India's Position

Global trade imbalances widened in 2024, reaching levels last seen in 2022. The US recorded the most significant trade deficit, while China maintained the highest trade surplus. The European Union, in contrast, reversed its earlier deficits, primarily due to high energy prices. India, along with Japan, and the UK, remained among the economies with significant trade deficits. These shifting trade patterns reflect evolving economic conditions, including fluctuating commodity prices and policy shifts in key markets.

WTO Trade Projections for 2025

In October 2024, the World Trade Organization (WTO) adjusted its global merchandise trade volume growth projection for 2024 to 2.7%, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 2.6%. However, the forecast for 2025 was revised downward from 3.3% to 3.0%, reflecting tempered expectations for trade expansion. The WTO's trade outlook report for 2025 is expected to be released in mid-April, providing further insights into the trajectory of global trade.

India's strong trade performance in 2024 demonstrates its growing influence in global markets. While challenges persist, the country's ability to adapt and innovate will be crucial in sustaining this momentum in the coming years.

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