India Must Brace for a Surge in Peak Electricity Demand Amid Rising Heatwaves

A Sharp Rise in Peak Electricity Demand

Experts have warned that India should prepare for a 9-10% growth in peak electricity demand this summer as heatwaves become more frequent. Last year, the all-India peak electricity demand crossed 250 gigawatts on May 30, exceeding projections by 6.3%. Climate change-induced heat stress is a key factor behind this surge.

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Sector-Wise Electricity Consumption Trends

Currently, industries, households, and agriculture account for 33%, 28%, and 19% of India's total electricity consumption, respectively. Household electricity demand has seen the fastest growth over the past decade. According to Disha Agarwal, Senior Programme Lead – Renewables at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), household electricity consumption increased from 22% in 2012-13 to 25% in 2022-23, mainly due to economic growth and rising cooling needs.

Surging Demand for Air Conditioners

The scorching summer of 2024 saw air conditioner sales rise by 40-50% year-on-year amid record-breaking temperatures. "India must now brace for extended heatwaves and a peak electricity demand growth of 9-10%. However, our analysis shows that this peak demand will only last for a short period," Agarwal noted.

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Electricity Demand Growth Exceeds Projections

Since 2020-21, India's electricity consumption has been growing at approximately 9% annually, a sharp increase from the previous decade's 5% growth rate. The Central Electricity Authority had estimated a 6% annual growth rate in electricity demand from 2022 to 2030. However, actual growth is outpacing these estimates.

India's Growing AC Market and Energy Efficiency Concerns

At the recent "Global Heat and Cooling Forum," experts highlighted India's increasing reliance on air conditioning. Abhas Jha, Practice Manager at the World Bank, warned that the number of heatwaves in India could triple under a moderate emissions scenario. He noted, "India is set to become the largest market for air conditioners globally. Every 15 seconds, an AC is sold in the country. However, most are highly energy-inefficient, consuming excessive electricity."

The Urgent Need for Sustainable Cooling Solutions

The International Energy Agency previously projected that air conditioning demand would triple by 2050, equating to adding 10 new air conditioners every second over the next three decades. Despite this rise, 2-5 billion people may still lack access to cooling by 2050.

Rishika Khosla, Research Director at the Oxford India Centre for Sustainable Development, emphasized that achieving thermal comfort for all without harming the environment is possible. She stressed the need for passive cooling techniques, energy efficiency, and phasing out harmful refrigerants. Implementing these measures could cut cooling-related emissions by 66% while further reductions would come from decarbonizing the electricity grid.

Heatwave Impact on Public Health and Infrastructure

India recorded 536 heatwave days in 2023, the highest in 14 years, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). During one of the most prolonged heatwaves, there were 41,789 suspected heatstroke cases and 143 reported heat-related deaths. This year, the heatwave arrived even earlier, with parts of Konkan and Coastal Karnataka experiencing extreme temperatures as early as late February.

Conclusion: Preparing for a Hotter Future

With the IMD forecasting above-normal temperatures across most of India from March to May, policymakers must focus on boosting electricity infrastructure, promoting energy-efficient appliances, and implementing sustainable cooling strategies. As peak electricity demand rises, ensuring a resilient and sustainable energy system will be critical to meeting India's growing needs.

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