IntroductionSwiss giants such as&nbsp;ABB&nbsp;and&nbsp;Kuehne Nagel&nbsp;are ramping up investments in India as the two nations prepare to benefit from the&nbsp;$100 billion Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA)&nbsp;with the&nbsp;European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The agreement, set to cut tariffs and create job opportunities, comes amid a strategic shift by businesses looking beyond China’s slowing economy and geopolitical risks.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;TEPA: A Game-Changer for Swiss-Indian TradeTEPA, signed in&nbsp;March 2024, is expected to reduce&nbsp;tariffs on 94.7% of Swiss exports&nbsp;to India, from chocolates to industrial machinery. Though the agreement is&nbsp;pending parliamentary approval&nbsp;and will likely take effect by&nbsp;2026, businesses are already optimistic about easier market access and&nbsp;competitive advantages&nbsp;over companies in the&nbsp;EU and UK.Why Swiss Firms Are Doubling Down on IndiaABB, a leader in industrial automation, has&nbsp;expanded its workforce from 6,000 to 10,000&nbsp;since 2020, driven by a&nbsp;27% annual rise in orders&nbsp;from India. “We are building for India, in India,” said ABB CEO&nbsp;Morten Wierod, underscoring the company’s&nbsp;commitment to local production.Meanwhile, logistics giant&nbsp;Kuehne Nagel&nbsp;has more than&nbsp;doubled its workforce to 4,800&nbsp;and opened new hubs in&nbsp;Chennai, Gurugram, and Kolkata. Managing Director&nbsp;Anish Jha&nbsp;praised India’s&nbsp;National Logistics Plan&nbsp;for lowering transportation costs, boosting growth, and supporting&nbsp;logistics infrastructure.A New Investment Destination for Precision EngineeringEven smaller companies are getting in on the action.&nbsp;Feintool, a precision components manufacturer, is building its&nbsp;first plant in Pune, which will employ 200 people and serve India’s growing automotive sector.In 2023, India accounted for&nbsp;1.5% of Swiss mechanical exports, but that share is rising—growing&nbsp;8% year-over-year. This trend reflects how companies are&nbsp;rebalancing their supply chains&nbsp;away from China, favoring India’s dynamic economy.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Conclusion: India’s Red Carpet for Global InvestmentTEPA will provide Swiss companies with&nbsp;zero-tariff access&nbsp;and help generate&nbsp;1 million new jobs&nbsp;in India over the next&nbsp;15 years. As businesses shift operations from China, India is positioning itself as a&nbsp;global trade hub, offering&nbsp;local manufacturing incentives, infrastructure growth, and a booming market of&nbsp;1.4 billion consumers.The&nbsp;Swiss-India partnership&nbsp;signals a broader trend—one where India is quickly becoming a&nbsp;preferred destination&nbsp;for global firms eager to tap into new opportunities.&nbsp;Also Read<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/india-s-fiscal-discipline-and-core-sector-resurgence-h1-fy-25-highlights">: <span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(32,56,94);font-family:-apple-system, &quot;system-ui&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Fira Sans&quot;, &quot;Droid Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;">India’s Fiscal Discipline and Core Sector Resurgence: H1 FY25 Highlights</a>

Swiss giants such as ABB and Kuehne Nagel are ramping up investments in India as the two nations prepare to benefit from the $100 billion Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The agreement, set to cut tariffs and create job opportunities, comes amid a strategic shift by businesses looking beyond China’s slowing economy and geopolitical risks.

Swiss Companies Shift Focus from China to India

Fiscal Deficit Narrows as Revenue Collection ImprovesIndia's fiscal deficit for the first half (H1) of FY25 narrowed to ₹4.75 trillion, reaching just 29.4% of the annual target. This marks an improvement from ₹7.02 trillion in H1 FY24, primarily due to higher tax revenues, an unprecedented dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and cautious capital expenditure amidst the general elections.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Key Figures:<ul><li>Net Tax Receipts: ₹12.65 trillion (49% of annual target) compared to ₹11.60 trillion in H1 FY24.</li><li>Government Expenditure: ₹21.11 trillion, or 43.8% of the annual budget, down slightly from ₹21.19 trillion in H1 FY24.</li><li>Capital Expenditure: ₹4.15 trillion, or 37.3% of the annual goal, showing a reduction from last year’s 49%.</li><li>Non-Tax Revenue: ₹3.57 trillion (65.5% of target), bolstered by a record RBI dividend.</li></ul>Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ltd., commented, "The deficit reduction is encouraging, but meeting FY25 capex goals remains ambitious, with monthly spending needing to reach ₹1.16 trillion in the second half."RBI Dividend Bolsters Fiscal StabilityThe RBI’s ₹2.11 trillion dividend, a 141% year-over-year increase, has given critical support to the government’s fiscal agenda. This substantial contribution strengthens India’s ability to meet its ambitious FY25 deficit target of 4.9% of GDP, down from last year’s 5.6%. This payout will help mitigate risks of revenue shortfalls or cuts in spending.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Core Sector Rebounds in SeptemberIndia’s core sector output showed a modest recovery in September, with a 2% annual growth following a 1.6% contraction in August. Five of the eight core industries—coal, steel, cement, fertilizers, and refinery products—recorded positive growth, signaling renewed momentum for nearly 40% of the industrial economy.Sector Highlights:<ul><li>Coal: Production rose by 2.6% after August’s 8.1% drop.</li><li>Steel: Increased by 1.5%, though down from August’s 3.9%.</li><li>Cement: Rebounded with a 7.1% rise after a prior decline.</li><li>Electricity: Output fell by 0.5%, extending its previous contraction.</li></ul>In summary, India’s fiscal discipline is evident, though sustaining growth in industrial output and meeting capex targets will be crucial for maintaining momentum. With careful balancing of fiscal goals and industrial policies, India’s economic growth remains on a cautious but optimistic trajectory for FY25.Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/india-s-economic-growth-is-on-track-but-job-creation-remains-a-challenge"> India’s Economic Growth is on Track, but Job Creation Remains a Challenge</a>&nbsp;

India's fiscal deficit for the first half (H1) of FY25 narrowed to ₹4.75 trillion, reaching just 29.4% of the annual target. This marks an improvement from ₹7.02 trillion in H1 FY24, primarily due to higher tax revenues, an unprecedented dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and cautious capital expenditure amidst the general elections.

India’s Fiscal Discipline and Core Sector Resurgence: H1 FY25 Highlights

IntroductionIndia’s economy is expected to grow steadily, but concerns about job creation and weak household consumption may limit its long-term potential. A recent Reuters poll of 48 economists conducted between October 21-28 indicates that while growth will stay robust, employment generation and spending remain key challenges.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Steady Economic GrowthIndia’s GDP is forecasted to grow by 6.9% in FY 2024-25, marginally below the IMF’s estimate of 7%, and further slow to 6.7% in FY 2025-26 and 6.6% by FY 2026-27. While last year’s 8.2% growth reflected strong government spending, economists stress that growth must exceed 8% over several years to generate sufficient jobs for millions entering the workforce annually.Job Creation: Limited ProgressAccording to the poll, 15 out of 28 respondents expect only a mild improvement in job creation, while 9 believe it will remain unchanged. Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale, highlighted that struggling MSMEs and negative real wage growth are key factors holding back employment. Public-sector jobs remain scarce, and private investment has stagnated for the past decade.Consumer Spending: Recovery Faces HeadwindsHousehold consumption, which contributes 60% to GDP, has picked up slightly but is likely to moderate in the coming months. Rising inflation is forcing households to cut back on essentials and dip into savings. 19 out of 28 economists expect only a mild increase in private consumption over the next yearStructural Reforms Needed for Sustainable GrowthThe lack of private investment hinders employment creation and broader economic recovery. Economists urge policymakers to introduce structural reforms and support key sectors like MSMEs to unlock investment and generate jobs. Without such changes, growth will remain uneven, benefiting only select industries, and limiting progress toward inclusive economic development.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>ConclusionIndia’s economic outlook remains positive, but sustained growth requires more than just high GDP numbers. Policymakers must focus on job creation, wage improvements, and private investment to ensure that the growth trajectory translates into broad-based prosperity. Household spending and employment are critical levers for long-term stability, and without addressing these issues, economic momentum may weaken in the years ahead.&nbsp;Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/rbi-s-growth-estimates-optimism-or-overreach"> RBI’s Growth Estimates: Optimism or Overreach?</a>

India’s economy is expected to grow steadily, but concerns about job creation and weak household consumption may limit its long-term potential. A recent Reuters poll of 48 economists conducted between October 21-28 indicates that while growth will stay robust, employment generation and spending remain key challenges.

India’s Economic Growth is on Track, but Job Creation Remains a Challenge

IntroductionThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected&nbsp;7.2% GDP growth&nbsp;for FY 2024-25, outpacing government estimates of&nbsp;6.5-7%&nbsp;and forecasts by Goldman Sachs, which expects growth to fall to&nbsp;6.5%. This optimistic outlook has raised questions among economists, especially given recent signs of slowing economic activity.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Mixed Signals: Rural Gains, Urban WeaknessThe RBI’s confidence stems from improving&nbsp;rural spending&nbsp;and&nbsp;private investments, but weak&nbsp;urban consumptionand&nbsp;declining exports&nbsp;present challenges. Recent data suggests:<ul><li>Passenger vehicle sales&nbsp;declined for two consecutive months.</li><li>Air travel&nbsp;fell in three of the last four months.</li><li>Factory activity&nbsp;softened since July, with only a slight recovery recently.</li></ul>The consumer goods sector is also under pressure.&nbsp;Hindustan Unilever Ltd.&nbsp;reported falling profits, with its CEO noting, “Urban growth has trended down in recent quarters.”Interest Rates: Tight Policy RisksThe RBI has held interest rates unchanged for nearly two years. Governor&nbsp;Shaktikanta Das&nbsp;warned against rate cuts, calling them “very, very risky.” However, some economists believe that delaying rate cuts could hinder growth. “Keeping rates higher for too long risks a policy misstep,” cautioned&nbsp;Teresa John&nbsp;of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, highlighting the&nbsp;lagged impact&nbsp;of monetary policy on economic recovery.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Festival Sales: A Temporary Boost?The RBI is banking on the&nbsp;festival season&nbsp;to revive demand, but economists warn that any boost might be&nbsp;short-lived. “There is hope that Diwali will be lit, but the light may not last several quarters,” said&nbsp;Achala Jethmalani&nbsp;from RBL Bank.Rural Recovery: A Limited ImpactRural markets are benefiting from&nbsp;above-normal monsoons&nbsp;and&nbsp;bumper crops, but the rebound remains insufficient to compensate for sluggish urban demand.&nbsp;Sunil D’Souza&nbsp;of Tata Consumer Products noted, “Rural is recovering but not enough for double-digit volume growth.”`Conclusion: Growth or Wishful Thinking?The RBI’s optimistic forecast has sparked concern, with economists warning that&nbsp;overlooking economic red flags&nbsp;could result in misguided monetary policy. As the central bank weighs&nbsp;growth and stability, the coming months will test whether rural gains and festival sales can sustain economic momentum or if&nbsp;the optimism proves premature.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/india-s-oil-demand-set-to-surge-amid-festivals-and-rabi-season">India’s Oil Demand Set to Surge Amid Festivals and Rabi Season</a> &nbsp;

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected 7.2% GDP growth for FY 2024-25, outpacing government estimates of 6.5-7% and forecasts by Goldman Sachs, which expects growth to fall to 6.5%. This optimistic outlook has raised questions among economists, especially given recent signs of slowing economic activity.

RBI’s Growth Estimates: Optimism or Overreach?

Introduction&nbsp;India’s oil consumption is expected to rise by nearly 4% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4 2024, driven by festive demand, the rabi sowing season, and elections. However, weather disruptions and softening crude prices may challenge the profitability of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in FY 2024-25.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Festivals, Weddings, and Elections Drive DemandAccording to S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights, India’s oil demand will grow by 50,000-55,000 barrels per day (b/d)in Q4 2024, led by gasoline and diesel consumption. The festive season boosts travel, retail spending, and vehicle purchases, while the wedding season (November–January) further increases automobile usage and goods movement. Upcoming state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are also expected to push transportation fuel demand higher.Rains Impact September Fuel DemandUnusually heavy rains disrupted road transport, construction, and mining activities, leading to a 2% YoY decline in diesel consumption in September 2024. Gasoline consumption rose 3% YoY, though sequentially it declined. “The northeast monsoon may dampen fuel demand temporarily, but the rabi season and festivals will drive recovery,” said Himi Srivastava, South Asia oil analyst at S&amp;P Global.OMCs Face Profitability Challenges from Lower Crude PricesCrisil Ratings expects OMCs to see shrinking margins as crude prices fall to $75 per barrel in H2 FY 2024-25 from $82 per barrel in H1. With the tapering of Russian crude discounts, OMCs’ gross refining margins (GRMs) are projected to shrink to $12-14 per barrel, down from $20 per barrel last year. Inventory losses may further impact profits.Stable Retail Prices to Support MarginsRetail fuel prices remain unchanged, helping OMCs maintain marketing margins of ₹4.5 per litre (~$9 per barrel). This stability will offset some of the pressures from declining refining margins. “Volatile crude prices will compress refining profits, but marketing margins will sustain overall returns,” said Aditya Jhaver, director at Crisil Ratings.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>ConclusionIndia’s oil demand will surge in Q4 2024, driven by festivals, weddings, and elections, but OMCs must navigate profit challenges amid falling crude prices and higher debt. With 80% of oil demand met via imports, stable fuel prices and marketing margins will remain essential in a volatile global environment.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/rbi-signals-flexibility-but-keeps-inflation-in-check">RBI Signals Flexibility but Keeps Inflation in Check</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;

India’s oil consumption is expected to rise by nearly 4% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4 2024, driven by festive demand, the rabi sowing season, and elections. However, weather disruptions and softening crude prices may challenge the profitability of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in FY 2024-25

India’s Oil Demand Set to Surge Amid Festivals and Rabi Season

Introduction: RBI Prioritizes Inflation Control At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed that&nbsp;India cannot afford another surge in inflation. He advocated for&nbsp;policy flexibility&nbsp;until inflation aligns with the central bank’s 4% target. The MPC voted&nbsp;5-1&nbsp;to maintain the&nbsp;benchmark repo rate at 6.5%&nbsp;for the tenth consecutive meeting, underscoring the RBI’s cautious approach amid global uncertainties.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Balancing Growth and InflationDas emphasized that&nbsp;price stability is crucial for sustainable growth&nbsp;and suggested shifting the policy stance to&nbsp;neutralto provide room for future adjustments. He warned that risks like&nbsp;geopolitical tensions, commodity price fluctuations, and adverse weather&nbsp;could disrupt inflation trends, making it essential to stay vigilant.Diverging Views Among MPC MembersWhile most members supported holding rates,&nbsp;Nagesh Kumar&nbsp;proposed a&nbsp;25-basis-point rate cut&nbsp;to boost private investment amid weak industrial demand. New members&nbsp;Saugata Bhattacharya&nbsp;and&nbsp;Ram Singh&nbsp;agreed with maintaining the rate but favored a&nbsp;neutral stance&nbsp;for more policy flexibility.Global Factors to WatchRBI Executive Director&nbsp;Rajiv Ranjan&nbsp;highlighted key uncertainties—U.S. elections, Chinese policies, and geopolitical risks—that may provide clearer insights by December. Deputy Governor&nbsp;Michael Debabrata Patra&nbsp;stressed that easing should only be considered when inflation nears the target.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Conclusion: Inflation Control is the RBI’s PriorityDas made it clear that&nbsp;controlling inflation takes precedence&nbsp;over stimulating growth. The&nbsp;wait-and-watch approachreflects the RBI’s commitment to&nbsp;long-term economic stability, balancing inflation management with growth needs as uncertainties unfold.Also Read<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/imf-projects-india-s-fy-25-growth-at-7-highlights-resilience-amid-global-headwinds">: IMF Projects India’s FY25 Growth at 7%, Highlights Resilience Amid Global Headwinds</a>

At the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed that India cannot afford another surge in inflation. He advocated for policy flexibility until inflation aligns with the central bank’s 4% target. The MPC voted 5-1 to maintain the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting, underscoring the RBI’s cautious approach amid global uncertainties.

RBI Signals Flexibility but Keeps Inflation in Check

IntroductionThe International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2024 World Economic Outlook, maintained India’s growth forecast at 7% for FY25 and 6.5% for FY26, signaling sustained momentum in the face of global uncertainties. For FY24, India’s economy grew by 8.2%, driven by pent-up demand, which is expected to moderate moving forward.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;India Leads Emerging Markets with Strong Domestic DemandIndia’s domestic consumption and investment remain key drivers of growth, with the RBI projecting 7.2% growth for FY25. Similarly, the World Bank recently raised India’s FY24 forecast to 6.6%, citing strong economic momentum. NR Bhanumurthy from the Madras School of Economics remarked that India has the potential to grow at 9% annually, though risks like rising oil prices and global inflation could limit growth.Global Growth Steady But UnevenWhile the IMF kept its global growth forecast at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, it noted mixed regional trends. Advanced economies, including the U.S., are projected to grow at 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, while China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2024. In contrast, emerging markets, led by India and Russia, are forecast to grow at 4.2%, driven by robust demand for electronics and AI investments.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Key Risks: Oil Prices, Inflation, and Geopolitical TensionsDespite the optimistic outlook, global inflation, volatile oil prices, and geopolitical tensions pose challenges. IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, warned that conflicts in the Middle East and tighter financial conditions could disrupt growth across commodity markets, affecting economies like India.Outlook: Positioned for Long-Term GrowthIndia’s growth outlook remains robust due to strong domestic demand and opportunities from global AI investments. However, successfully navigating external risks will be crucial to maintaining its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.With stable economic fundamentals, India is well-positioned to thrive, but vigilance against external shocks will be key to sustaining this momentum in the coming years.Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/fed-likely-to-hold-rates-in-november-as-us-economy-defies-recession-fears"> Fed Likely to Hold Rates in November as US Economy Defies Recession Fears</a>

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2024 World Economic Outlook, maintained India’s growth forecast at 7% for FY25 and 6.5% for FY26, signaling sustained momentum in the face of global uncertainties. For FY24, India’s economy grew by 8.2%, driven by pent-up demand, which is expected to moderate moving forward.

IMF Projects India’s FY25 Growth at 7%, Highlights Resilience Amid Global Headwinds

The Case for a Fed Pause in November The Federal Reserve is increasingly likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its November meeting, according to&nbsp;Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management. Despite inflation concerns, the US economy shows remarkable strength, raising the possibility that the Fed will adopt a more cautious stance for the remainder of 2024.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Resilient Growth and Market TailwindsSlok attributes the economy’s momentum to several supportive factors. Elevated&nbsp;stock and home prices,&nbsp;narrow credit spreads, and ample&nbsp;corporate financing&nbsp;continue to bolster growth. The Atlanta Fed estimates&nbsp;Q3 GDP growth at 3.4%, reflecting strong economic performance and what Slok refers to as a “no landing” scenario—where expansion persists without a recession.Bond Market Reflects Growth ExpectationsThe bond market has responded with rising yields, driven by concerns over inflation and fiscal policy:<ul><li>2-year Treasury yield: Rose above 4%.</li><li>10-year yield: Climbed 9 basis points to 4.17%.</li><li>30-year yield: Approached 4.5%, impacted by option-related trades.</li></ul>The market’s reaction underscores investor concerns about inflation reigniting, despite economic growth.Policymakers Favor Caution Amid Strong DataPolicymakers like&nbsp;Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan&nbsp;have echoed the need for patience, suggesting that further rate hikes may not be necessary. The Fed’s&nbsp;September dot plot&nbsp;hinted at two possible rate cuts by year-end, but robust September employment data has shifted expectations toward a pause in November.Upcoming Data and Market UncertaintyWith the&nbsp;October jobs report&nbsp;due on November 1 and elections adding political uncertainty, the Fed faces a complex decision. Traders are currently pricing&nbsp;20 basis points of easing&nbsp;for November, signaling that markets expect the Fed to hold steady in at least one of its final two meetings.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act for the FedThe US economy’s resilience suggests that the Fed may opt to maintain current rates in November, allowing more time to assess inflation trends. While fiscal risks linger, including the potential for&nbsp;5% yields on 10-year Treasuries, Slok believes&nbsp;locked-in low rates&nbsp;and government initiatives will continue to support growth. For now, the Fed’s best course may be caution as it monitors the evolving economic landscape.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/ecb-poised-for-surprise-rate-cut-amid-growth-concerns">RBI Repo Rate Cuts Likely Delayed to 2025 as Inflation Hits Nine-Month High</a>&nbsp;

The Federal Reserve is increasingly likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its November meeting, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management. Despite inflation concerns, the US economy shows remarkable strength, raising the possibility that the Fed will adopt a more cautious stance for the remainder of 2024.

Fed Likely to Hold Rates in November as US Economy Defies Recession Fears

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the third consecutive cut this year. This move reflects confidence that inflation is easing faster than anticipated, allowing policymakers to shift focus toward supporting the euro-zone economy, which has shown signs of stagnation.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;<h2>Inflation in Retreat: Room for Easing</h2><ul><li>Inflation fell to 1.7% in September, the lowest since 2021.</li><li>Services inflation remains elevated, hovering near 4%, suggesting persistent upward pressures.</li><li>The ECB expects to bring inflation under control by early 2025, advancing its earlier forecast of mid-2025.</li></ul>Markets anticipate continued rate cuts at each meeting through March 2025, with the deposit rate potentially settling around 2% by the end of next year.<h3>Sluggish Growth in Key Economies</h3>While Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, struggles with weak exports to China, Spain, Portugal, and Greeceare helping the region avoid a recession through strong domestic demand. A trade spat between Brussels and Beijing could further weigh on the economy, adding to risks.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a><h3>Outlook: Cautious but Ready to Act</h3>Analysts expect gradual easing, with the ECB likely slowing the pace of cuts in 2025. However, if growth falters, back-to-back reductions could continue. The ECB aims to reach a neutral rate of 2%-2.5%, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.<h3>Global Risks Add Complexity</h3>Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East hostilities and a possible shift in U.S. policy, remain key concerns for ECB officials. Additionally, policymakers are keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which has begun its own easing cycle, potentially influencing global markets.<h3>Market Response</h3>German 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 2.20% after the rate cut, while markets have fully priced in another quarter-point reduction by December. The ECB’s strategic shift aims to revive growth without reigniting inflation. As inflation cools and external risks loom, the bank will need to tread carefully to ensure a sustainable recovery.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/ecb-poised-for-surprise-rate-cut-amid-growth-concerns">RBI Repo Rate Cuts Likely Delayed to 2025 as Inflation Hits Nine-Month High</a>&nbsp;

The ECB cuts its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, signaling confidence in easing inflation and shifting focus to support the euro-zone's slowing economy.

ECB Cuts Interest Rates to 3.25% Amid Slowing Inflation to Support Growth

InrtroductionIn a significant monetary policy adjustment, China has cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) during the monthly fixing on October 21, 2024. This decision aligns with market expectations and reflects the government's commitment to stimulate the economy amidst ongoing challenges. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) now stands at 3.10%, down from 3.35%, while the five-year LPR has been reduced to 3.60% from 3.85%.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Context of the Rate CutsThe reduction in the LPR is part of a broader strategy initiated by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to bolster economic activity. Following last month’s policy rate reductions, this cut is the latest in a series of aggressive measures aimed at addressing sluggish growth and reviving critical sectors, particularly real estate and consumer spending. The PBOC last adjusted both rates in July, and they are now positioned at historically low levels, providing an opportunity for both businesses and consumers to access cheaper financing.Implications for Borrowers and the EconomyThe one-year LPR is the reference rate for most new and outstanding loans in China, making it a crucial benchmark for businesses seeking credit. The five-year LPR plays a vital role in determining mortgage rates, impacting home buyers and the real estate market. With the latest cuts, the hope is to encourage lending and stimulate demand in a landscape characterized by cautious consumer sentiment and reduced investment activity.PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng previously indicated the likelihood of rate reductions between 20 to 25 basis points, setting the stage for this anticipated adjustment. This move is expected to ease financial pressures on borrowers and support consumption as the country grapples with economic headwinds.Comprehensive Stimulus MeasuresThe recent rate cuts are part of a comprehensive stimulus package implemented by the PBOC, marking the most aggressive measures since the onset of the pandemic. On September 24, the central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 bps and cut the benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps. Additionally, a 30 bps cut in the medium-term lending facility rate was enacted last month.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Economic Outlook and Challenges AheadRecent economic data suggests that China’s growth in the third quarter surpassed expectations, although investment in the property sector has plummeted by more than 10% in the first nine months of the year. Encouragingly, both retail sales and industrial production showed signs of recovery in September, indicating that the economy may be beginning to stabilize.Chinese officials remain optimistic about achieving the government's full-year growth target of approximately 5%. They have also indicated the possibility of further reductions to banks' reserve ratios by year-end, emphasizing a commitment to economic recovery.In conclusion, the recent cut in benchmark lending rates underscores the PBOC's proactive stance in fostering a conducive environment for growth. As China navigates through these challenging economic waters, the effectiveness of these measures will be closely monitored, with implications not only for domestic markets but also for the global economy.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/india-s-trade-deficit-shrinks-to-five-month-low-amid-export-resilience">India’s Trade Deficit Shrinks to Five-Month Low Amid Export Resilience</a>

In a significant monetary policy adjustment, China has cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) during the monthly fixing on October 21, 2024. This decision aligns with market expectations and reflects the government's commitment to stimulate the economy amidst ongoing challenges. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) now stands at 3.10%, down from 3.35%, while the five-year LPR has been reduced to 3.60% from 3.85%.

China Cuts Benchmark Loan Prime Rates: A Strategic Move to Revitalize the Economy

IntroducionIndia’s trade deficit fell to $20.78 billion in September, the lowest in five months, offering a temporary relief amid global economic headwinds. This marks an improvement from $29.65 billion in August, reflecting both a modest rise in exports and a significant drop in imports. However, sequential declines in exports suggest that growth remains fragile.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Export and Import TrendsMerchandise exports in September stood at $34.58 billion, marginally up from $34.41 billion a year ago but slightly lower than August’s $34.71 billion. Key sectors like&nbsp;engineering goods&nbsp;(up 10.5% YoY to $9.82 billion), pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and garments drove export growth. However, volatile global demand led to fluctuating monthly export figures, with exports falling from $38.13 billion in May to $33.98 billion in July.On the import side, September's imports were $55.36 billion, the lowest since May. A significant drop from August’s $64.36 billion indicates weakening domestic demand, particularly for commodities. Despite softer demand, oil imports—India’s largest import component—remain inelastic, making the trade balance vulnerable to global price shifts.Services Sector: A Key ContributorIndia’s services exports reached $30.61 billion in September, up from $28.42 billion a year earlier, driven by IT and financial services. Services imports also increased to $16.32 billion, reflecting higher demand for outsourced services. Combined merchandise and services exports totaled $65.19 billion, slightly lower than August’s $65.40 billion.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Challenges and OutlookGlobal uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with fluctuating oil prices, continue to pose challenges. The WTO expects global trade to grow by 2.6% in 2024, offering a potential tailwind for India’s exports.With major export destinations including the US, UAE, and China, India’s efforts to diversify trade and maintain resilient export sectors remain essential. “India is well-positioned to navigate headwinds with record forex reserves and robust export promotion measures,” said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings.In the months ahead, managing geopolitical risks and oil price volatility will be key to maintaining trade momentum and narrowing the deficit further.Also Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/ecb-poised-for-surprise-rate-cut-amid-growth-concerns"> RBI Repo Rate Cuts Likely Delayed to 2025 as Inflation Hits Nine-Month High</a>

India’s trade deficit fell to $20.78 billion in September, the lowest in five months, offering a temporary relief amid global economic headwinds. This marks an improvement from $29.65 billion in August, reflecting both a modest rise in exports and a significant drop in imports. However, sequential declines in exports suggest that growth remains fragile.

India’s Trade Deficit Shrinks to Five-Month Low Amid Export Resilience

IntroductionIndia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are on track to achieve $100 billion in non-oil tradeby 2030, according to the commerce ministry. This follows the second meeting of the Joint Committee (JC) under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), held in the UAE. The meeting, co-chaired by Ajay Bhadoo from India’s commerce department and Juma Al Kait from the UAE, highlighted the rapid trade growth since CEPA’s implementation in 2022.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Key Focus Areas: TRQ and Jewellery TradeA major focus of the discussion was the implementation of Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ), designed to allow UAE exporters to benefit from lower tariffs on specific products. India also requested designating the Indian Jewellery Exposition Center in Dubai as a trade zone, which would enable Indian jewellery manufacturers to access concessional duties.Advancing Trade in ServicesThe two countries discussed the importance of Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs), which would allow professionals such as lawyers, accountants, and healthcare workers to operate without additional certifications. They committed to holding a sub-committee meetingsoon to expedite these agreements.Concerns over Rising ImportsIndia raised concerns about a recent surge in silver products, platinum alloys, and dry datesimports from the UAE, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to rules of origin norms. Both countries agreed to ensure better verification processes.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Bilateral Trade GrowthTrade between India and the UAE has grown steadily, reaching $83.6 billion in 2023-24, up from $59.5 billion in 2013-14. While oil remains a key import, CEPA has encouraged growth in non-oil sectors, including manufacturing, jewellery, and services.Conclusion: A Promising Economic PartnershipThe India-UAE trade partnership is evolving rapidly under CEPA, with both sides committed to achieving their $100 billion non-oil trade target. The focus on TRQ, professional services, and compliance checks highlights their intent to maintain transparency and unlock further growth.With robust trade momentum, mutual cooperation, and reduced barriers, this partnership promises to shape a dynamic economic future for both nations.&nbsp;Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/ecb-poised-for-surprise-rate-cut-amid-growth-concerns"> <span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(32,56,94);font-family:-apple-system, &quot;system-ui&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Fira Sans&quot;, &quot;Droid Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;">RBI Repo Rate Cuts Likely Delayed to 2025 as Inflation Hits Nine-Month High</a>

India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are on track to achieve $100 billion in non-oil tradeby 2030, according to the commerce ministry. This follows the second meeting of the Joint Committee (JC) under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), held in the UAE. The meeting, co-chaired by Ajay Bhadoo from India’s commerce department and Juma Al Kait from the UAE, highlighted the rapid trade growth since CEPA’s implementation in 2022.

India-UAE Set to Achieve $100 Billion in Non-Oil Trade by 2030

Surge in Inflation Raises Concerns &nbsp;India's retail inflation surged to&nbsp;5.49%&nbsp;in September 2024, a sharp rise from&nbsp;3.65%&nbsp;in August, driven by food prices and an unfavorable base effect. This exceeded economists' forecast of&nbsp;5.04%, challenging the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) expectations. The central bank held the&nbsp;repo rate&nbsp;steady at&nbsp;6.5%&nbsp;in its October meeting, signaling caution as inflation remains above its comfort zone.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Economists Push Rate Cut Forecast to 2025 &nbsp;Economists believe the next repo rate cut may not happen until&nbsp;H1 2025. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, stressed that a December 2024 rate cut would require inflation to drop below&nbsp;5%&nbsp;or growth to fall significantly short of expectations. Similarly, Upasna Bhardwaj from Kotak Mahindra Bank warned that high food inflation could keep the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cautious, despite favorable prospects from rabi sowing.Global Risks Add Complexity to RBI’s Decisions &nbsp;Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global noted that the RBI will remain on a wait-and-watch approach, balancing inflation risks with global volatility. The&nbsp;US Federal Reserve’s&nbsp;rate cut cycle adds uncertainty, with lingering risks from geopolitical tensions and volatile exchange rates complicating the RBI’s policy options.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Rupee Weakens as Inflation, Outflows Hit Sentiment &nbsp;The Indian&nbsp;rupee&nbsp;depreciated to&nbsp;84.067&nbsp;against the US dollar, near its record low, driven by foreign outflows and regional currency weakness. Jigar Trivedi from Reliance Securities expects further depreciation, with the rupee possibly breaching&nbsp;84.10, though RBI intervention could stabilize the currency.Bond Yields Hold Despite Inflation Spike &nbsp;The&nbsp;10-year government bond yield&nbsp;remained stable at&nbsp;6.7755%&nbsp;despite higher inflation. Falling oil prices offered some relief, supporting market sentiment and easing concerns about future inflationary pressures.Conclusion: Policy Easing Hinges on Data and Global Stability With inflation above target and global risks persisting, the RBI is likely to delay rate cuts until&nbsp;2025. Economists expect future decisions to depend on inflation easing, GDP performance, and geopolitical developments. Until then, the RBI’s focus will likely remain on maintaining financial stability amidst evolving uncertainties.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/ecb-poised-for-surprise-rate-cut-amid-growth-concerns">ECB Poised for Surprise Rate Cut Amid Growth Concerns</a>

India's retail inflation surged to 5.49% in September 2024, a sharp rise from 3.65% in August, driven by food prices and an unfavorable base effect. This exceeded economists' forecast of 5.04%, challenging the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) expectations. The central bank held the repo rate steady at 6.5% in its October meeting, signaling caution as inflation remains above its comfort zone.

RBI Repo Rate Cuts Likely Delayed to 2025 as Inflation Hits Nine-Month High

&nbsp;Introduction: Policy Shift Toward EasingThe European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce an&nbsp;unexpected 25-basis-point rate cut&nbsp;this week, reversing its earlier stance amid growing fears that high borrowing costs are stifling economic growth. Previously, policymakers had hinted at waiting until December for new data, but recent economic indicators now suggest urgent action is needed.Impact on Financial Markets This move aligns with global monetary easing trends. Markets have priced in further cuts, with expectations of continued easing until borrowing costs reach neutral levels by 2025. ECB President Christine Lagarde will provide more insights during a press conference in Slovenia this week.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>&nbsp;Global Economic Outlook: Key Developments• United States: Retail sales expected to rise, while factory output may dip. Fed speakers to offer rate path updates.• Asia: China’s GDP may miss the 5% target. Central banks in Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines set to announce rate decisions.• Europe: UK inflation could fall below 2%, easing BoE pressure. Germany's ZEW survey to reflect economic sentiment.• Latin America: Chile poised for another 25 bps rate cut, continuing aggressive easing.• Middle East &amp; Africa: Inflation concerns grow amid geopolitical tensions in Israel and South Africa.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Conclusion: ECB’s Easing Path and Global Implications &nbsp;The ECB’s decision highlights the growing urgency to counter slowing economic activity. If growth weakens further,&nbsp;more cuts are likely&nbsp;before year-end, potentially deepening the global easing cycle. Markets will closely watch Christine Lagarde’s remarks on the pace and extent of future policy adjustments.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/undp-partners-with-india-to-boost-manufacturing-jobs-and-sustainable-growth">UNDP Partners with India to Boost Manufacturing, Jobs, and Sustainable Growth</a>&nbsp;


The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce an unexpected 25-basis-point rate cut this week, reversing its earlier stance amid growing fears that high borrowing costs are stifling economic growth. Previously, policymakers had hinted at waiting until December for new data, but recent economic indicators now suggest urgent action is needed.

ECB Poised for Surprise Rate Cut Amid Growth Concerns

Collaborating to Strengthen ManufacturingThe United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has partnered with India to enhance domestic manufacturing, foster job creation, and support sustainable development. Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP’s Asia-Pacific Head, highlighted that the focus will be on innovation, entrepreneurship, and upskilling, particularly in sectors like renewables and technology, to address India’s economic and employment challenges.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>While India’s services sector dominates its economy, manufacturing’s contribution has stagnated at 16-17%, below the government’s 25% target. The partnership will engage private companies to expand manufacturing, create quality jobs, and drive inclusive growth.Addressing Job Creation and Gender GapsIndia must generate 7.85 million non-farm jobs annually, as per the Economic Survey 2023-24. However, the unemployment rate reached 9% in June 2024, highlighting the urgency for job creation. UNDP’s initiatives will emphasize upskilling women and marginalized groups, aiming to increase women’s participation in the formal labor market, which currently stands at only 25.2% for urban women.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Supporting India’s Sustainable Development GoalsUNDP will also assist India in achieving its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by providing technical support for the third voluntary national review. The focus will be on data analysis and strengthening state-level SDG implementation through coordination centers in key states. Additionally, the partnership aims to boost green job growth in line with India’s commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.Conclusion: A Path to Inclusive and Sustainable GrowthThis partnership between UNDP and India seeks to tackle critical challenges in manufacturing, employment, and sustainability, ensuring a more inclusive and environmentally conscious economic future.&nbsp;Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/us-inflation-hits-lowest-level-since-february-2021-september-consumer-prices-edge-above-forecasts"> US Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since February 2021: September Consumer Prices Edge Above Forecasts</a>

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has partnered with India to enhance domestic manufacturing, foster job creation, and support sustainable development. Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP’s Asia-Pacific Head, highlighted that the focus will be on innovation, entrepreneurship, and upskilling, particularly in sectors like renewables and technology, to address India’s economic and employment challenges.

UNDP Partners with India to Boost Manufacturing, Jobs, and Sustainable Growth

A Subtle Rise in Consumer Prices Amid Low InflationIn September, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased slightly more than expected, marking a modest 0.2% rise following an identical increase in August. Despite this, the annual inflation rate reached its lowest point in over 3.5 years, a sign that inflationary pressures have significantly eased since peaking in mid-2022. This could potentially keep the Federal Reserve on course for another interest rate cut next month.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>According to data released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in September, a slight reduction from the 2.5% rise seen in August. This marks the smallest annual increase since February 2021, showing a notable slowdown from the 9.1% peak inflation recorded in June 2022.Core Inflation Remains Sticky as Rent Prices Slow DownWhile inflation overall is decelerating, certain components, particularly housing and rents, are still showing signs of stubbornness. Excluding volatile items such as food and energy, core inflation rose by 0.3% for the second consecutive month, and by 3.3% over the past 12 months, a slight uptick from August’s 3.2%.Federal Reserve's Next Move: Rate Cuts on the Horizon?The recent moderation in inflation has allowed the Federal Reserve to shift its focus toward stabilizing the labor market. In September, the Fed implemented a 50-basis-point rate cut, its first since 2020, lowering the policy rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. This follows a series of aggressive rate hikes over 2022 and 2023, where the Fed raised rates by a total of 525 basis points in an effort to combat rising inflation.Labor Market Resilience Could Limit Further Rate CutsDespite easing inflation, the strength of the labor market may present a challenge for further rate reductions. The U.S. economy added the highest number of jobs in six months during September, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August. This robust job growth, combined with solid consumer spending, could temper the Fed’s appetite for additional cuts.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Outlook: Cooling Inflation, but Caution RemainsThe recent trends in inflation and monetary policy signal that the U.S. economy is on a path to stability, but uncertainties persist. While inflation has receded significantly from its highs, pockets of stickiness in sectors such as housing, coupled with labor market strength, mean the Federal Reserve will need to tread carefully in the coming months.As financial markets continue to monitor the Fed’s actions, the probability of a rate cut in November remains high, but future reductions will likely depend on further economic data. With inflation close to the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank's focus has now shifted to ensuring that any policy changes support both price stability and sustainable economic growth.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/rbi-set-to-pause-in-october-but-a-policy-shift-looms-ahead-bof-a-securities">RBI Set to Pause in October, But a Policy Shift Looms Ahead: BofA Securities</a>

In September, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased slightly more than expected, marking a modest 0.2% rise following an identical increase in August. Despite this, the annual inflation rate reached its lowest point in over 3.5 years, a sign that inflationary pressures have significantly eased since peaking in mid-2022. This could potentially keep the Federal Reserve on course for another interest rate cut next month.

US Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since February 2021: September Consumer Prices Edge Above Forecasts

Introduction&nbsp;Bank of America (BofA) Securities, in its latest report, predicts that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain its current policy rate in the upcoming October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The central bank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%, continuing its pause for the tenth consecutive meeting. However, BofA suggests that a shift in the central bank's monetary policy stance may be on the horizon.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>No Rate Change Anticipated in OctoberBofA Securities emphasized that the RBI's near-term outlook on growth and inflation remains upbeat, reducing the likelihood of any immediate policy changes. In recent speeches, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has firmly rejected any short-term rate adjustments, despite global monetary easing cycles. The RBI’s projections for FY25 include 7.2% economic growth and 4.5% inflation, which appear to be on track, as confirmed by the RBI's latest bulletin.Potential Shift in Stance Toward NeutralWhile the repo rate is expected to stay steady, BofA Securities indicates that the October meeting could signal a change in the RBI's stance. Current economic data presents mixed signals, with growth risks tilted to the downside and inflation inching closer to the central bank’s target on a four-quarter rolling basis.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Gradual Slowdown in Growth and Inflation ForecastsAccording to BofA Securities, India’s economic growth is expected to slow down gradually, with a potential decline in inflation as well. This may open the door for rate cuts starting in December 2024, with a total of 100 basis points in reductions forecasted by the end of 2025. However, these cuts are not anticipated before late 2024, as the RBI remains cautious and committed to data-driven decisions.Growth and Inflation Projections Remain SteadyBofA Securities does not foresee significant changes to the RBI's growth and inflation forecasts in the near term. While some downward revisions to growth estimates for the second quarter of FY25 are possible due to weaker data, the central bank is expected to maintain its overall 7.2% growth projection for the year.Conclusion: A Shift in Stance May Precede Rate CutsIn conclusion, while the RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at its October MPC meeting, a shift in stance toward a neutral position is becoming more likely. With slowing economic growth and easing inflation pressures, the groundwork for future rate cuts is being laid, though these cuts are not expected before December 2024. Market participants will closely monitor the RBI’s future policy moves, particularly as the central bank navigates a changing domestic and global economic landscape.&nbsp;Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/rbi-monetary-policy-highlights-shift-to-neutral-stance-signals-potential-rate-cuts"><span style="background-color:rgb(243,243,243);color:rgb(32,56,94);font-family:-apple-system, &quot;system-ui&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Fira Sans&quot;, &quot;Droid Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif;">RBI Monetary Policy Highlights: Shift to ‘Neutral’ Stance Signals Potential Rate Cuts</a>

Bank of America (BofA) Securities, in its latest report, predicts that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain its current policy rate in the upcoming October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The central bank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%, continuing its pause for the tenth consecutive meeting. However, BofA suggests that a shift in the central bank's monetary policy stance may be on the horizon.

RBI Set to Pause in October, But a Policy Shift Looms Ahead: BofA Securities

IntroductionIndia’s economic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are set for a significant boost, with UAE investments in India projected to reach $100 billion across key sectors, according to Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. This announcement was made during the 12th meeting of the India-UAE High-Level Task Force on Investments, co-chaired by Goyal and Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, managing director of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Expanding Investment Beyond $75 Billion CommitmentInitially, in 2018, the UAE had committed $75 billion for investments in India, focusing on infrastructure, manufacturing, and other sectors. This planned investment is now poised to grow to $100 billion, reflecting the UAE’s increasing interest in India’s economic landscape, although no specific timeline was provided.Strengthening Bilateral TradeIndia-UAE trade reached $85 billion in 2022-23, making the UAE India’s third-largest trading partner after China and the U.S. Additionally, the UAE ranks as India’s second-largest export market, with exports worth $31.61 billion. Despite a $12 billion trade deficit with the UAE, this gap has narrowed from $21 billion the previous year, suggesting an improving trade balance.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Food Corridor and Future InvestmentsA key highlight from the meeting was the announcement of a $2 billion investment in a food corridor over the next 2-2.5 years, aimed at boosting income for Indian farmers and creating jobs. This initiative will establish food processing parks, enhancing food production and ensuring high-quality exports to the UAE.Educational Collaboration: IIFT Campus in DubaiIndia is also expanding educational cooperation, with the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT) set to open its first overseas campus at Dubai’s Expo City by early 2025. The campus will offer training programs and eventually launch its flagship MBA in International Business.ConclusionWith the UAE’s investments in India set to reach $100 billion, the economic partnership between the two nations continues to strengthen. This increased investment, spanning sectors like infrastructure, food processing, and education, marks a critical milestone in India-UAE relations, driving mutual growth and regional stability.Also Read: <a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/yen-tumbles-to-two-year-low-as-rate-hike-hopes-fade">Yen Tumbles to Two-Year Low as Rate Hike Hopes Fade</a>

India’s economic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are set for a significant boost, with UAE investments in India projected to reach $100 billion across key sectors, according to Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. This announcement was made during the 12th meeting of the India-UAE High-Level Task Force on Investments, co-chaired by Goyal and Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, managing director of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

UAE’s Investment in India Set to Reach $100 Billion: Piyush Goyal

IntroductionThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy for FY25 on October 9, 2024. After a three-day meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting. However, the significant change was the shift in policy stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral,’ indicating the possibility of rate cuts in the near future if inflation remains stable.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Key Policy Measures<ul><li>Repo Rate: 6.5% (unchanged)</li><li>Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 6.25%</li><li>Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and Bank Rate: 6.75%</li><li>Policy Stance: Changed to ‘neutral’ from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’</li></ul>The decision to maintain rates reflects caution, while the neutral stance signals flexibility for future monetary easing.Growth and Inflation Projections<ul><li>GDP Growth: FY25 forecast retained at 7.2%, indicating confidence in the economy despite global uncertainties.<ul><li>Q2 FY25: Revised down to 7%</li><li>Q3 &amp; Q4 FY25: Raised to 7.4%</li></ul></li><li>CPI Inflation: FY25 forecast kept at 4.5%, signaling stable inflation expectations.<ul><li>Q2 FY25: Lowered to 4.1%</li><li>Q3 FY25: Slightly increased to 4.8%</li><li>Q4 FY25: Cut to 4.2%</li></ul></li></ul>Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Additional Announcements<ul><li>Responsible Lending: Extended norms for Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs).</li><li>UPI Enhancements: Increased transaction limits and introduced a new beneficiary name look-up for RTGS/NEFT.</li><li>Climate Risk Information System: Launched to address sustainability risks.</li></ul>OutlookThe shift to a neutral stance paves the way for potential rate cuts, contingent on inflation remaining under control. The next MPC meeting in December 2024 will be closely watched for further developments, with the RBI likely to adjust its stance based on economic and inflationary trends.Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/m-manufacturing-expansion-in-india-cools-to-eight-month-low-amid-sluggish-export-growth"> Manufacturing Expansion in India Cools to Eight-Month Low Amid Sluggish Export Growth</a>

he Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy for FY25 on October 9, 2024. After a three-day meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting. However, the significant change was the shift in policy stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral,’ indicating the possibility of rate cuts in the near future if inflation remains stable.

RBI Monetary Policy Highlights: Shift to ‘Neutral’ Stance Signals Potential Rate Cuts

IntroductionThe Japanese yen plunged to its lowest level in two years, falling sharply against the U.S. dollar after new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan’s economy is not ready for another interest rate hike. The yen’s slide reflects market unease over Japan’s economic policy direction.Finding multibagger stocks is important for building wealth. Discover potential multi-baggers at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/discovery/Large%20Order%20Receipts">Sovrenn Discovery.</a>Ishiba's Comments Spark Yen's Sharp DeclineIshiba’s direct denial of a rate hike caught investors by surprise, sparking a selloff. Mari Iwashita, an economist at Daiwa Securities, suggested the comment may have been intended to soften the blow of the "Ishiba shock." The yen dropped over 2.9% overnight, marking its steepest daily loss since June 2022, and sank beyond the 147 mark against the U.S. dollar in Tokyo trading.U.S. Treasury Yields Rise, Compounding Yen’s WeaknessStronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and rising U.S. Treasury yields added to the yen’s pressure. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 3.78%, fueled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assertion that the U.S. economy remains strong. This bolstered the dollar, putting additional strain on the yen.Leah Traub from Lord Abbett described the situation as a "double whammy" for the yen, with market players repositioning after being too bearish on the dollar.Investing has built huge wealth for several HNI investors. Learn investing FREE OF CHARGE at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/education">Sovrenn Education</a>Volatile Markets Reflect UncertaintyYen option traders remain cautiously optimistic, but bullish sentiment has waned since early September. Hedge funds have also reduced their bearish bets on the yen. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, pointed to market anxiety over Japan’s monetary policy and expects the Prime Minister to refrain from further policy comments due to market sensitivity.Bank of Japan Holds Firm on RatesBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced Ishiba’s comments, signaling no immediate rate hikes. According to Yuya Yokota of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking, the BOJ's hesitation is aimed at avoiding market disruptions, with yen depreciation likely to continue through year-end.Outlook: Yen Faces Extended PressureAs Japan’s low interest rates persist, the yen may remain under pressure from carry trades, where investors borrow yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. The yen’s outlook remains weak, with continued market volatility expected amid uncertain economic policy.Conclusion: The yen’s dramatic fall reflects deep uncertainties about Japan’s economic strategy. With no immediate rate hikes in sight and U.S. policy remaining hawkish, the yen could face ongoing challenges, keeping investors on edge.Also Read:<a href="https://www.sovrenn.com/knowledge/m-manufacturing-expansion-in-india-cools-to-eight-month-low-amid-sluggish-export-growth"> Manufacturing Expansion in India Cools to Eight-Month Low Amid Sluggish Export Growth</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;

The Japanese yen plunged to its lowest level in two years, falling sharply against the U.S. dollar after new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan’s economy is not ready for another interest rate hike. The yen’s

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